After a little searching and poking on the internet last night, I managed to find the study that purports to state, according to popular media, a doomsday if we are to turn on to biofuels in a big way. Please, read the study and judge for yourself here, at the Science website. Further, I found a few other good pieces on CNet News and The Renewable Fuels Association and/or the Argonne National Laboratory. While a bit dry, and defensive in areas, these are good reading.
As I noted in another post, I am not a scientist. The only professional or academic research I have ever participated in were focused on computer science and mathematics, and that was almost two decades ago. So, with that caveat stated, here's what I think of the seemingly damning study published in Science.
- The study states... "Because we compare these emissions to the cost of 30 years of ethanol consumption, we treat them as up-front costs." This means what? Seems to me this means that the emissions for the next 30 years are tossed into the beginning emissions values. This is not how nature works and should not be used that way in the study. Far too many unknowns exist within the next 30 years. Given today's high rate of technological changes, 30 years if far too long to believe it unlikely that ethanol production cannot be optimized by a significant amount.
- The study focuses on corn based ethanol and the loss of land for increased production, especially in third world nations. This is a failure. While alternate sources of ethanol were mentioned, little was researched.
- Conventional wet and dry methods of milling and ethanol production were covered, but little was stated regarding potentially novel methods.
- Corn was domesticated sometime in the area of 7000 BC, in Central Mexico. Since then, all breeding and research into corn hybridization and breeding has been focused on nutrient quality, hardiness and adapting the plant to varied environmental situations. Only limited resources have been used to research hybridized corn or other plant products to emphasize their ability to produce ethanol.
- While not specifically stated, it seems the authors assume a conventional monolithic manufacturing and distribution model. Ignoring regional and local production, manufacture and distribution as a viable option is tremendously short sited. A local model is not even viable but is quite sustainable.
So, please read and judge for yourself. Comments???
Information sources: Corn; Ethanol
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3 comments:
I agree with you, as do many in the agriculture, energy and environmental sectors who have good reason to believe that the growing increase in demand for energy, along with food, feed and fiber, can be met, in large part, with a boost in biofuel production facilitated by advances in technology. Current biofuels serve as the foundation upon which a new generation of cellulosic biofuel development will be built. These new biofuels will not only minimize land use changes, but actually enhance the environment through the production of biomass that results in improvements in soil and water quality along with wildlife habitat. The University of Nebraska-Lincoln just released a five-year, three-state study that shows switchgrass grown for biofuel production produced 540 percent more energy than that needed to grow, harvest and process it into cellulosic ethanol. The study also showed switchgrass offers real environmental benefits – it requires no pesticides or fertilizers, keeps soil intact and virtually stops runoff. Technology enhanced crops will make existing acreage more productive, helping prevent encroachment of biofuel feedstock production onto sensitive lands. Late last year the U.S. Congress adopted a goal which calls for our nations’ farms, ranches and forests to meet 25 percent of the nations’ energy needs by the year 2025. This is a viable goal and encourages advancements in clean energy solutions that not only result in environmental improvements, but simultaneously strengthen our economy and national security.
Thanks for the comment! i couldn't agree more. The biofuel technology of today, while not necessarily young, is the foundation of tomorrow's advances.
Switchgrass shows a great deal of promise, as does other possible biomass crops such as Miscanthus. According to the University of Illinois, Miscanthus can produce up to 15 tons of biomass per acre with almost no inputs. (http://www.miscanthus.uiuc.edu/)
25% of the nations' energy needs by 2012? I don't think that would be too difficult to accomplish. It would be easier without all of the chaff being thrown about by incomplete research and journalists and writers and publications trying to make a buck wherever they can.
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